But this recovery - putting the world on track to meet demand over the five-year period - also puts the world on a path to missing net-zero emissions targets, it said. Upstream investment is set to recover in 2023 to its highest since 2015, the IEA forecast. Supply growth in the period is dominated by the US and non-OPEC countries in the Americas such as Guyana and Brazil, as upstream oil and gas investment recovers. The IEA's five-year report forecast global spare production capacity of 3.8 million b/d thanks partly to growth in South America. Commodity Insights forecasts demand reaching 109.5 million b/d in 2028. S&P Global Commodity Insights forecasts that oil demand will peak at some 111 million b/d in 2031, but be sustained at that level for much of the 2030s, only seeing significant decline from 2039. "Oil producers need to pay careful attention to the gathering pace of change and calibrate their investment decisions to ensure an orderly transition." "The shift to a clean energy economy is picking up pace, with a peak in global oil demand in sight before the end of this decade as electric vehicles, energy efficiency and other technologies advance," IEA Executive Director Fatih Birol said in a statement. India supersedes China as the driver of demand growth in 2027. And gasoline demand starts to decline on an annual basis in 2024. Aviation underpins growth early in the period, with Asia's petrochemical demand dominating later. However, annual increases shrink to 400,000 b/d in in 2028.
Global oil demand rises 6% to 105.7 million b/d through 2022-28 under the five-year forecast. The report said oil demand for combustion purposes - rather than petrochemical manufacturing - would peak in 2028, although it acknowledged that overall oil demand would continue to rise through the forecast period. However, on the same day, the IEA also published its annual five-year outlook, "Oil 2023," showing signs of oil demand approaching a peak over the period, and "strains" in the market starting to ease. "This could leave the market in deficit in 2024, with the second half looking particularly tight," the IEA said. It forecast demand to moderate in 2024, with growth of just 860,000 b/d, but said slower production growth in the US combined with OPEC+ output cuts could make for a tight market. The Paris-based organization highlighted China's resurgence as it raised its annual demand estimate for 2023 in its monthly oil market report, saying a market struggling for direction seemed to be overlooking key consumer nations. Receive daily email alerts, subscriber notes & personalize your experience.
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